How the Next Few Days Will Shape the Rest of This Bull Cycle

AI-generated image by Freepik

On September 16–17, the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet to determine whether it will lower interest rates.

Based on Polymarket predictions, 90% predict a decrease of 25 basis points (bps), with another 7.5% expecting the Fed’s interest rate to drop by 50 bps, i.e., 0.5%, in one go. Two-thirds of people are also betting on a 25 bps drop for the Oct 28–29 meeting.

To what extra crypto price gains have already been factored in leading up to the decision is anyone’s guess. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are also up in the lead-up to this decision, so it would be very surprising if Jerome Powell keeps rates on hold (and will likely infuriate Trump and Bessent, but I digress).

I believe we haven’t peaked yet in this four-year cycle, assuming it remains intact. As I’ve mentioned several times over the past four months, Google Trends indicates that we haven’t yet reached our peak.

Sidenote: This Trends data remains relevant, despite being the first cycle with LLMs such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot, among others. Google searches still have a several-fold lead over LLM queries combined, but this will undoubtedly diminish.

Bitcoin’s price increase of 67% since the November 2021 peak of $69,000 is very modest, perhaps somewhat disappointing when considering gold’s 85% gains over a similar period.

If…