Unfortunately, cbBTC will take market share from sBTC because many investors tend to stick with options from established and regulated institutions, such as Coinbase.

Fortunately, sBTC will still play a key role in Bitcoin DeFi and function as an L2, particularly among devs and others who are more tech-savvy and are willing to support non-custodial alternatives such as Stacks.

Many people often select the most convenient option, not (necessarily) the safest or "best" one. This applies to various things in life.

Case in point (regarding tech): Search engines. Many still use Google as as the default one, even though privacy-focused alternatives exist to break up its monopoly, such as Brave.

https://brave.com/compare/google-vs-brave-search/

Back to sBTC. As you mentioned in the following paragraph, its ecosystem is small but still growing.